Meteorology 2000-2001 Progress Report to the Antarctic Science Advisory Committee

Mr Hugh Hutchinson, Bureau of Meteorology

Goal 1 - Maintain the Antarctic Treaty System and Enhance Australia's Influence within the System.

The continued contribution of meteorological data into World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) bodies, and of upper atmosphere data into World Data Centres and a range of international bodies, are strong foci for Atmospheric Sciences under Goal 1. Antarctic nations give strong support to space weather studies. International collaborative programs linking ground based sites to satellite measurements (eg Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energy Dynamics study) and expanded ground-based networks (eg Super Dual Auroral Radar Network, and Automated Geophysical Observatories) are leading increased research in this field. Australia's participation in the scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics programs (STEP) (such as STEP Results Applications and Modelling Phase program, and the Planetary Scale Mesopause Observing System) ensures Atmospheric Sciences continue to contribute to the objectives of the ATS.

Key Scientific Outputs

Involvement in setting the direction of international scientific programs and forums relating to Antarctic issues, and contributing to their outcomes.

Assessment Milestones

• Data received by WMO bodies, the World Data Centres, Ionosphere Prediction Service and other international organisations (2000-2005).
• Publications, data sets and reports contribute to relevant international programs (Each of 2001-2005)

Research Output achieved against the strategic plan

• WMO monitoring of Antarctic data, received at the hubs of the Global Telecommunications System circuits, shows that reliable surface and upper-air stations are running appropriate observational programs. There is coordinated and sustained operational performance.
• WMO monitoring statistics indicate that Antarctic data are received in time to be assimilated into global models before the cut-off times at each of the global weather forecasting centres.
• Australia has an ongoing commitment (since 1994) to participate in the International Programme for Antarctic Buoys (IPAB) sponsored by World Climate Research Programme. In 2000 the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and AAD renewed commitments to the Chairman of the IPAB Executive Committee (Professor Christoph Kottmeier). It is recognised that air pressure and temperature data from the Antarctic seasonal sea ice zone have great impact on the initial analysis in global weather prediction models and over a period of time to climate research.
• Doug Shepherd BoM Tas/Ant Climate and Consultative Services continues (since 1995) his production for WMO of the annual Catalogue of Antarctic Climate Data Collected by Australian Agencies. The catalogue is also distributed to other interested parties in both hard copy and web page format.

Major Research Output(s) completed in 2000-01 relating to previous seasons' activities

• There is a need to maintain the quality of Antarctic weather data, archive it into a consolidated database and make it accessible to researchers of all nations. The Physics and Chemistry of the Atmosphere (PACA) Working Group of SCAR is implementing the READER (Reference Antarctic Data foe Environmental Research) project. The availability of such a dataset is particularly important because of the great interest in variability and change in the Antarctic climate. A statement regarding climate variability over the last 50 years is expected as an eventual output.
• PACA had a successful meeting in Tokyo 10-14 July 2000, which included three symposia, a scientific visit and project planning meetings. The symposia covered "Climate variability and change in the Antarctic from observations and modelling experiments," "Chemical processes in the Antarctic troposphere and stratosphere" and "Antarctic precipitation and mass balance". The last mentioned symposium being organised jointly with the SCAR Working Group on Glaciology.
• Dr Steve Dixon participated in the expert meeting (Geneva 16-18 October 2000) reviewing the performance of the telecommunications in Antarctica as well as the use of system ARGOS for the downloading data relayed via polar orbiting satellites from automatic weather stations and drifting buoys, coding and then inserting this information into the Global Telecommunications System.
• Australia operates a ground station at Casey for reception images of clouds and sea ice from the NOAA 14, 15 and 16 polar-orbiting satellites. As well data from automatic weather stations, drifting buoys and temperature profile data) are also captured by the NOAA ground station and then communicated to other parts of the world.
• The International Antarctic Weather Forecasting Handbook (Editors Turner and Pendlebury) looks at meteorology from the perspective of one of the most challenging and rewarding sciences, as well as its application to providing operational weather services in support national research programs. This is a valuable reference book for weather forecasters and students of atmospheric science alike.
• At the Antarctic CRC Neil Adams is developing an application of the BoM Limited Area Prediction System (LAPS) at high latitudes around Antarctica. The domain is bounded by latitudes 35S and 80S and longitudes 0E to 180E. This Antarctic version of LAPS is doing well in capturing some of the detail of weather in the polar trough and the broad-scale outflow over the surface of the Antarctic continent, when run in medium resolution mode of 25km grid point resolution. It involves a real time data assimilation phase of operation.
• The concept of this "Antarctic Working Papers" series originated with Henry Phillpot who has spent most of his life working with extraordinary dedication and enthusiasm towards a systematic understanding of the processes that drive the weather in Antarctica. In February 2001, three Antarctic Working Papers by Henry launched the series. The style of this collection allows useful ideas and information to be speedily promulgated amongst interested parties, after limited review. It is envisaged that Antarctic weather forecasters, who serve with Australian National Antarctic Research Expeditions, will contribute to the series each year. In this way knowledge of Antarctic meteorology may accrue and provide content for the regular review of the International Antarctic Weather Forecasting Handbook.
• Phillip Targett is completing his thesis by part time study under the supervision of Professor Bill Budd, at the Antarctic CRC, on low level winds in the vicinity of the Vestfold Hills and observations of associated "hydraulic jumps".

Research/Activities in the 2000-01 strategic plan NOT achieved and why

• None.

Goal 2 - To Protect the Antarctic Environment

Atmospheric Sciences: Compliance with the Madrid Protocol involves monitoring changes in the environment against a background of natural variability. Understanding and quantifying changes can be enhanced significantly by studying all levels of the atmosphere, and Antarctica can be used as a global monitor. Human activity has already caused significant stratospheric ozone depletion and may have contributed to global tropospheric warming. The reported mesospheric cooling (near 87km), and observed prevalence of noctilucent clouds (NLCs) may be related to increased oxidation of methane at these altitudes.

The ASP program provides fundamental information on the processes that are directly related to human activity (eg greenhouse gas emissions; production of ozone depleting chemicals; production of gaseous pollutants from stations, ships, aircraft). Atmospheric studies are determining if anthropogenic influences are modifying the climate of the middle and upper atmosphere. Measurement of anthropogenic gas concentrations in Antarctica are needed to determine the importance of minor atmospheric constituents on climate: water vapour is the most significant greenhouse 'gas'; aerosols play a major role in ozone depletion chemistry, and volcanic aerosols play a role in cooling the atmosphere.

Key Scientific Outputs

Measurements of atmospheric trace gas concentrations, specifically ozone and NO_x using ground based instruments at Davis as a contribution to the activities of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change. Monitor the Antarctic stratosphere and mesosphere for signatures of anthropogenic change and the process via which such change is occurring.

Assessment Milestones

• Describe changes in tropospheric trace gas concentrations at Davis (2000-2005).

Research Output achieved against the strategic plan

• The first broadband spectro-radiometer was installed at Davis in the summer of 1993-94 to provide spectral resolution of irradiance over the wavelength region of 280-400 nm. ASAC Project 2276 'Determination of the ultraviolet radiation environment at the Australian Antarctic Stations' with Dr. Colin Roy, Australian Radiation Protection and nuclear Safety Agency (ARPANSA), as Chief Investigator continues to operate broadband UV radiation monitoring instruments at all ANARE stations.
• The normal daily practice at Mawson, Davis, Casey and Macquarie Island is to use 500gm balloons to launch GPS radiosondes to altitudes of 22/30 km. Commencing in 2000/01, once a month 800gm balloons were used to reach 35 km (5hPa), thus sensing more of the lower stratosphere. One of these higher balloon flights can be achieved weekly from Davis if the need arises, such as calibration of the LIDAR that AAD installed at Davis in the summer of 2000/01. It is planned that surface measurements of total column ozone using a Brewer spectrophotometer and weekly vertical profiles of ozone to 35km may eventually commence at Davis.
• AAD is to install at Davis a 120kV VHF radar in the summer of 2001/2002. This will provide continuous data on the horizontal and vertical components of wind profiles from a height of 400m in the surface boundary layer, throughout the troposphere and into the statosphere.

Major Research Output(s) completed in 2000-01 relating to previous seasons' activities

• For the 4 years (1996-2000) the CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology funded a program of balloon-borne ozone sonde releases each week from Macquarie Island, with substantial help from ASAC and the Bureau of Meteorology. The data comprise a valuable set in a data sparse part of the globe. There is a long-established practice of total column ozone measurements (at least three per day) using a ground based Dobson Spectrophotometer. Twelve hourly vertical profiles of pressure, temperature, moisture and wind velocity are also a part of the routine at Macquarie Island.

Research/Activities in the 2000-01 strategic plan NOT achieved and why

• There has been no progress yet towards the establishment of firm foundations and scientific leadership for a realistic monitoring program in atmospheric chemistry by 2004.

Goal 3 - To Understand the Role of Antarctica in the Global Climate System

The atmospheric sciences are concerned with improving the observational coverage over the Antarctic and Southern Ocean region for purposes of weather forecasting and climate analysis. They are concerned with improving the analysis of these observations and with their use in models of atmospheric processes. More generally, the overall field of atmospheric science provides an umbrella for a central activity of modern climate research - namely, the development of overall atmosphere/ocean/cryosphere numerical models designed to simulate the complete earth-atmosphere climate system and ultimately to predict future changes in global climate.

The association of tropospheric climate and solar activity in the pre-industrial era leads to the inference that approximately one third of the global warming observed in the twentieth century results from solar activity. The geoelectric field is postulated as providing a mechanism via which solar variability can influence weather and climate.

The measurement of middle atmosphere parameters has only recently been achieved and a major focus of the program during the coming period will be to measure winds and temperatures through the stratosphere and lower mesosphere, and VHF radar will be used to obtain real-time data sets on wind and temperature in the troposphere and lower stratosphere.

Key Scientific Output

Integration of atmospheric research with research on other parts of the climate system including the oceans, sea ice, ice shelves and the Antarctic ice-sheet, to better represent the exchange between the Antarctic atmosphere and the ice and ocean through the use of theoretical models and new observations.

Assessment milestones

• Set up a nested regional model for climate simulation purposes to cover the Antarctic and Southern Ocean region and include interactive sea-ice (2003)

Monitoring of natural and anthropogenic atmospheric constituents

Assessment Milestones

• Establish firm foundations and scientific leadership for a realistic monitoring program (2004). [Kyoto Protocols requirements are setting new demands on the precision and continuity of atmospheric greenhouse gas measurements. In an Antarctic context a challenge with similar requirements is the detection of ocean changes in response to global warming, using the atmosphere to integrate surface fluxes over ocean basin scales. The foundations need strengthening.]
• Relate past levels of atmospheric constituents as determined from ice cores to the corresponding broad meteorological situations which existed at those times (2005). [Constituents force rather than reflect climate; i.e. the trace gas levels have value in their own right. Given the >10 year smoothing in the ice record, high quality continuous records over decades (at least until 2005) are the most significant milestone. In any case the milestone requires precise definition of the trace gas composition at Law Dome compared to global values. Reduced uncertainty in southern ocean regional CO2 fluxes derived from atmospheric composition measurements by 2005 is an appropriate target in both cases.]

Improve the recovery and dissemination of climate-related meteorological data from the Antarctic region

Assessment Milestones

• Deploy additional long-term automatic weather stations (2001-2005) [and by inference, maintain the existing AWS network]

Research Output achieved against the strategic plan

• The 21^st meeting of the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) for the World Climate Research Programme (Tokyo, March 2000) approved the establishment of the Climate and Cryosphere (CLIC) Project within WCRP. The JSC endorsed the CLIC Science and Coordination Plan that focuses international effort on the role of the cryosphere in climate research initiatives. The JSC is the committee responsible for the conduct of the WCRP. The 23^rd meeting of the JSC is to be held in Hobart from Monday 18 March to Friday 22 March 2002. This is the first meeting of JSC in Australia. We will have the opportunity to showcase Australian climate research during two one-hour research seminars on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons.
• Prof. Ian Simmonds has an exemplary track record at The University of Melbourne in meteorology/glaciology and he has made great strides in the development of these themes within the Australian Antarctic science effort. In addition, he has combined excellence in research with the training of postgraduate students, many of high quality. There is no doubt that Dr. Simmonds has had the most prolific research paper publication record on Antarctic meteorology in Australia for more than a decade. He has addressed the most fundamental problems on Antarctic climatology and the physical processes in the atmospheric circulation. His record along with that of his students and collaborators continues to place Australia at the forefront of Antarctic Meteorology research. The ASAC proposal scheme has provided valuable assistance to maintain Antarctic research as a high priority within the wide range of research activities of Prof. Simmonds and his group. As a result the University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Prof Simmonds and his department also provide a substantial contribution to Antarctic research. The Council of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society recently announced the award of the inaugural AMOS Medal to Ian Simmonds. This new medal emphasizes leadership in meteorology, oceanography and related fields in Australia, particularly through education and development of young scientists, and through personal example in research.

Major Research Output(s) completed in 2000-01 relating to previous seasons' activities

ASAC Project 124

Concentration and isotopic measurements of radiatively important gases in the southern atmosphere.

Dr. Roger Francey, CSIRO DAR.

• Project commenced in 1986/87 at Macquarie Island and Mawson and was extended to Casey in 1997/98.
• Paper "Global carbon sinks and their variability inferred from atmospheric O² and d¹³C" was published in the journal Science in 2000.
• This long term monitoring project in 2000/01 was in Year 2 of the current 5 year multiyear approval cycle (approved until 2003/04 at this stage).
• CSIRO data continues to be internally consistent and of the highest quality, providing useful insights to global processes. Antarctic sites make a contribution to this.
• The initiation of a PhD project to use the data in appropriate models is a very significant step for this project (it was a milestone of the 1995-2000 Strategic Plan). This should greatly enhance the use of this high southern latitude data and increase understanding of regional influences on atmospheric gas composition.

ASAC Project 1080

An investigation into Southern Hemisphere cyclone-sea ice links using long records of NCEP analyses and passive microwave data.

Prof. Ian Simmonds, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne.

Multi-year (2) approval was recommended by two independent assessors for 1998/99 and 1999/00. This project was then assessed under the new strategic plan for 2000/01 in its proposed the third year and final year and it was granted $20,000.

• We still have a very poor understanding of the relationship between the atmospheric circulation and the extent and concentration of sea ice.
• Automatic cyclone tracking software has been applied from the NCEP global reanalysis products available every six hours for the period 1958-97.
• This project has led to three publications (two in the Journal of Climate) in 2000:

1. Simmonds and Keay, 2000: Mean Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone behaviour in the 40-year NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. Journal Of Climate 13, 873-885.
2. Simmonds and Keay, 2000: Variability of Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone behavior 1958-97. Journal of Climate 13, 550-561.
3. Other results were published as a WMO Technical Document- Simmonds, Watkins and Hope, 2000: Antarctic ice and cyclone connections on bi-weekly and synoptic time scales. In Ritchie (ed) Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling. World Meteorological Organization.

• Preliminary work has been undertaken on the relationship between cyclones and sea ice (and how that relationship changes with timescale).
• Completion of a large suite of analyses over the last year of this project, along with the examination of the inter-decadal variability holds the promise of more very interesting results.

Research/Activities in the 2000-01 strategic plan NOT achieved and why

• ASAC Project 1262 "Air/snow exchange of major chemical species" did not commence sampling on Law Dome as approved by ASAC due to the Project being withdrawn in June 2001 by the Investigator Dr. Chad Dick, who is now employed at the Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromso.
• ASAC Project 2282 "Atmospheric sulphur species at high southern latitudes" involving sampling at Mawson and Macquarie Island since 1991 was also withdrawn by Investigator Dr. Chad Dick because he could not get any support in Norway for sampling at Mawson and Macquarie Island.

General Comment

Antarctic Atmospheric Science Program

The Australian Antarctic Atmospheric Sciences Strategic Plan 1995-2000 resulted in ASAC approval of 130 Projects. Climate is a major focus of Antarctic research grants. Many of the scientific outcomes specified were delivered on time and within the resources allocated to each individual Project. The Australian Antarctic Atmospheric Sciences Strategic Plan 2000-2005 has so far generated a total of 28 projects that were approved by ASAC for the first two years of the plan. These include 17 projects that are identified as belonging to the 'meteorology' component. These have been further subdivided into three themes that are convenient for understanding the composition of this component of atmospheric sciences and also monitoring the balance and strength of it. Many of the scientific outcomes specified in the projects were delivered on time and within the resources allocated to each individual project 2000-2001.

Table 1 ASAC Atmospheric Sciences Program Projects Proposed Under The 2000-2005 Strategic Plan

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Last Updated: 12/17/2001Top