Program Leader's Progress Report for Space & Atmospheric Sciences to the Antarctic Science Advisory Committee for the 2000-01 Antarctic Season

Dr Marc Duldig, Australian Antarctic Division

Goal 1 - Maintain the Antarctic Treaty System and Enhance Australia's Influence within the System.

Space and Atmospheric Sciences (SAS) contributes to the ATS through its involvement in international programs endorsed by SCAR.  The continued contribution of meteorological data into World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) bodies, and of upper atmosphere data into World Data Centres and a range of international bodies, are strong foci for Atmospheric Sciences under Goal 1.  Antarctic nations give strong support to space weather studies.  International collaborative programs linking ground based sites to satellite measurements (eg Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energy Dynamics study) and expanded ground-based networks (eg Super Dual Auroral Radar Network, and Automated Geophysical Observatories) are leading increased research in this field.  Australia's participation in the scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics programs (STEP) (such as STEP Results Applications and Modelling Phase program, and the Planetary Scale Mesopause Observing System) ensures Atmospheric Sciences continue to contribute to the objectives of the ATS. 

Key Scientific Outputs

Involvement in setting the direction of international scientific programs and forums relating to Antarctic issues, and contributing to their outcomes

Assessment Milestones

• Publications, data sets and reports contribute to relevant international programs (Each of 2001-2005).
• Data received by World Data Centres, IPS Radio and Space Services/ World Data Centre for Solar Terrestrial Science and other international organisations (Each of 2001-2005).
• Play an active role in collaborative programs such as the ground-based "instrument" of the TIMED and CLUSTER satellite missions, and the PSMOS, GEM and S-RAMP programs (2005).

The Cosmic Ray program operates the only surface and underground recording station at polar latitudes.  Interpretation of cosmic ray phenomena requires good spatial coverage in latitude and longitude of observations.  These are essential elements in the worldwide cosmic ray observatory network.  The inclusion of the neutron monitor in the 'Space Ship Earth' consortium will place Australia at the forefront of international cosmic ray research.  Establishment of the Ground level Enhancement (GLE) database will allow greater data sharing amongst Antarctic Treaty nations and the wider cosmic ray community.

Key Scientific Output

Involvement in setting the direction of international scientific programs and forums relating to Antarctic issues, and contributing to their outcomes

Assessment Milestones

• Establish GLE database at Kingston (2001).
• International access to the GLE database (2001).
• Upgrading of the Mawson neutron monitor to Space Ship Earth specifications (2003).
• Publication of results from Space Ship Earth consortium analyses of cosmic ray anisotropies and transients (2004-2005).
• Continue collaborative bi-hemisphere muon studies with Japanese research groups from Shinshu and Nagoya Universities (on going).

Research Output achieved against the strategic plan

A total of 33 publications under projects 20, 29, 514, 527, 606, 674, 701 and 877 appeared in 2000.  Of these 13 were in refereed journals.  Particularly noteworthy was project 606 with 5 internationally refereed journal papers and 7 conference publications.  Project 29 also had an internationally refereed journal paper, a major international invited review paper and 10 internal unrefereed papers.

The GLE database has been established with very limited international access.  Full international access was scheduled for completion in calendar year 2001.  This is unlikely to be achieved until well into 2002 due to data centre staff workload.

Data were routinely transferred to the IPS World data centre and other world data centres.

Major Research Output(s) completed in 2000-01 relating to previous seasons' activities (e.g. Broke Survey of Krill in Antarctic waters)

No major outputs specific to the season were expected for this year.

Research/Activities in the 2000-01 strategic plan NOT achieved and why

Nil

Goal 2 - To Protect the Antarctic Environment

Atmospheric Sciences:  Compliance with the Madrid Protocol involves monitoring changes in the environment against a background of natural variability.  Understanding and quantifying changes can be enhanced significantly by studying all levels of the atmosphere, and Antarctica can be used as a global monitor.  Human activity has already caused significant stratospheric ozone depletion and may have contributed to global tropospheric warming.  The reported mesospheric cooling (near 87km), and observed prevalence of noctilucent clouds (NLCs) may be related to increased oxidation of methane at these altitudes.

The SAS program provides fundamental information on the processes that are directly related to human activity (eg greenhouse gas emissions; production of ozone depleting chemicals; production of gaseous pollutants from stations, ships, aircraft).  Atmospheric studies are determining if anthropogenic influences are modifying the climate of the middle and upper atmosphere.  Measurement of anthropogenic gas concentrations in Antarctica are needed to determine the importance of minor atmospheric constituents on climate: water vapour is the most significant greenhouse 'gas'; aerosols play a major role in ozone depletion chemistry, and volcanic aerosols play a role in cooling the atmosphere. 

Key Scientific Outputs

Measurements of atmospheric trace gas concentrations, specifically ozone and NO_x using ground based instruments at Davis as a contribution to the activities of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change.  Monitor the Antarctic stratosphere and mesosphere for signatures of anthropogenic change and the process via which such change is occurring.

Assessment Milestones

• ·          Describe changes in tropospheric trace gas concentrations at Davis (2000-2005).
• ·          Describe the occurrence rate of Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and NLCs at high latitudes (2000-2005).
• ·          Determine whether any adverse effects on climate and weather are observed in the stratosphere, mesosphere and thermosphere that might relate to atmospheric emissions (2005).
• ·        Describe the characteristics of the peripheral boundary of the stratospheric polar vortex above Davis (2001-2005).

Research Output achieved against the strategic plan

Program of PSC and NLC observations was established.  It is on a volunteer basis at Casey, Mawson, Macquarie Island and on the ships and is based on visual and photographic observations and manual logging.  SAS staff at Davis undertake the observations.  SAS staff at Casey undertook the tasks until October 2001 when the final automation of the equipment was completed and staff returned to Australia.

Major Research Output(s) completed in 2000-01 relating to previous seasons' activities (e.g. Broke Survey of Krill in Antarctic waters)

Lidar was installed, commissioned and is operational.  Comparisons with balloon sonde measurements at maximum balloon altitudes are good.

Research/Activities in the 2000-01 strategic plan NOT achieved and why

The Lidar was not in place to observe the polar vortex break up in the previous season. The milestone should have been adjusted to commence 2002 following the delayed delivery of the Lidar to Davis.  The Doppler measurements necessary for a more complete characterisation (winds and temperatures) will be possible after the summer 2001/2 campaign but temperature measurements of the polar vortex break up in Raleigh scattering mode have been achieved. 

Goal 3 - To Understand the Role of Antarctica in the Global Climate System

The association of tropospheric climate and solar activity in the pre-industrial era leads to the inference that approximately one third of the global warming observed in the twentieth century results from solar activity.  The geoelectric field is postulated as providing a mechanism via which solar variability can influence weather and climate. 

The measurement of middle atmosphere parameters has only recently been achieved and a major focus of the program during the coming period will be to measure winds and temperatures through the stratosphere and lower mesosphere, and VHF radar will be used to obtain real-time data sets on wind and temperature in the troposphere and lower stratosphere.

Key Scientific Outputs

Quantification of middle atmosphere climate cooling processes from measurements of stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures, the study of Polar clouds and the associated radar phenomena of Polar Mesospheric Summer Echoes as indicators of climate change.

Assessment Milestones

• Measure stratospheric and mesospheric properties over Davis using LIDAR and optical spectrometers to quantify temperatures, aerosol concentration and abundances of trace gases, and determine their role in climate (Each of 2001-2005). 
• Link temperatures determined from OH(8-3) band spectra to temperatures determined from OH(6-2) spectra in a quantifiable manner (2001).
• Derive temperatures at the altitude of the hydroxyl (OH) layer by collection and analysis of OH spectra (Each of 2001-2005)
• Measure vertical extent and frequency of occurrence of tropospheric cirrus, polar stratospheric and mesospheric noctilucent clouds, with concurrent wind and temperature, using LIDAR, to understand the processes associated with their formation (Each of 2001-2005).
• Describe the atmosphere during noctilucent clouds occurrence using Medium Frequency Spaced Antenna radar, VHF radar and OH spectroscopy (2005).
• Determine the significant sources of variability in the middle atmosphere above Davis and quantify the sensitivity of this region to detecting change (2005).

Determine the climatology of atmospheric gravity waves, tides and planetary waves, their interaction and role in the transport of energy and momentum between the troposphere, stratosphere and mesosphere.

Assessment Milestones

• Describe a climatology of gravity wave activity above Davis from radar and LIDAR (2001-2003).
• Identify propagation effects in gravity waves above Davis and their modulation by tides and other planetary-scale waves (2003-2004).
• Describe a climatology of planetary waves and tides in the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere above Davis using radar, optical and LIDAR techniques (2001-2005).
• Determine whether solar variability influences the weather and climate via modulation of the geoelectric field.

Assessment Milestones

• Determine if Vostok geoelectric field data are consistent with an influence on weather and climate via the geoelectric field (2005).
• Develop an international network of geoelectric field monitors to quantify and separate the influence of thunderstorm and solar activity on the geoelectric circuit (2005).
• Improved quantification of the direct solar variability influence on the ground measured geoelectric field at Vostok using a modern (1998) data set (2001).

Research Output achieved against the strategic plan

Papers comparing the atmospheric wind and tide measurements by optical and radar techniques were published. Papers on the deceleration of thermospheric winds resulting from gravity wave interactions and on the derivation of mesospheric temperatures from OH(6-2) emissions were published.

Lidar measurements of temperatures commenced.  Polar stratospheric clouds have been observed in the dark winter sky with the Lidar.

The work on the improved quantification of direct solar variability influence on the ground measured geoelectric field at Vostok has been completed and a paper is in final stages of preparation.  It will be submitted by the end of the calendar year.

Major Research Output(s) completed in 2000-01 relating to previous seasons' activities (e.g. Broke Survey of Krill in Antarctic waters)

Lidar was installed, commissioned and is operational.  Comparisons with balloon sonde measurements at maximum balloon altitudes are good.

Research/Activities in the 2000-01 strategic plan NOT achieved and why

The project linking temperature measurements from the OH(8-3) and OH(6-2) spectra has made substantial progress with much of the analysis completed.  Completion of the analysis and reporting in the literature will be achieved in 2002.

Goal 4 - To Undertake Work of Practical, Economic and National Significance.

Substantialmeteorological activity is required for safe and cost effective support of human activity in Antarctica.  The Australian Antarctic Meteorological Centre, at Casey, makes a substantial contribution to Antarctic meteorology, and continues to data for operational Numerical Weather Prediction models. 

The geographic and magnetic locations of Australia's Antarctic stations provide a significant opportunity to contribute to monitoring and knowledge of space weather - a matter of importance for correct functioning  of space-based technological systems.  The energy that a single solar disturbance puts into the geospace environment can destroy orbiting satellites, disrupt continental power grid systems, radio communications (including satellite TV and mobile telephones) and GPS navigation.  Space weather research involves the development of an operational global circulation model linking the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere systems.  These models, using real time data inputs, are used to minimise the impact of potentially damaging space weather events.  Space weather research also involves the development and deployment of new instrumentation, such as the Tasman International Geospace Environment Radar (TIGER), VHF radars and magnetometers, and DPS-4 ionosondes.

Key Scientific Outputs

Further improve space weather forecasting ability.

Assessment Milestones

• Utilisation of ionosonde, geomagnetic, GPS, riometer and optical data from all Australian Antarctic stations to provide space weather data (2000-2005).
• Provision of TIGER  and FedSat data to facilitate studies of upper atmosphere space weather research (2000-2005).
• Continue FPS thermospheric 630nm observations at Davis, and extend database and enhance circulation models (Each of 2001-2005)
• Studies of scintillation effects on propagation from communication and navigation satellites (2003).
• Develop automated instrumentation for all experiments where possible (Each of 2001-2005)

Enhance accurate forecasting capability of high frequency radio communication circuits between Australia and Antarctica.

Assessment Milestones

• High frequency radio forecast for the Australian Antarctic region based on real time ionospheric observations (2000-2001). 
• Utilise  polar-cap absorption events via riometer to monitor the orbit environment in the vicinity of Australian geostationary satellites, and that of FedSat (2004).
• Development of improved high latitude ionospheric models (2005)
• Utilise basic upper atmosphere data for practical purposes.

Assessment Milestones

• Provide basic geophysical data from each of the ANARE stations for use by scientists of all nations, and to provide real-time data where it is of practical importance (Each of 2001-2005).
• Utilise of ionospheric data for improving models of the polar ionosphere (2003).
• Interpretation of cosmic ray phenomena requires good spatial coverage in latitude and longitude of observations.  The inclusion of the neutron monitor in the 'Space Ship Earth' consortium will play an important role in Space Weather data input.  Establishment of the Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) database will facilitate greater data sharing amongst the cosmic ray community and will enhance our ability to maintain world leadership in modelling the arrival of these radiation bursts at the Earth.  The continued cosmic ray latitude surveys will lead to improved cosmic ray spectrum and yield function determinations which will be of value to all neutron monitor observatories world-wide.

Key Scientific Output

Improved assessment and monitoring of the near Earth space radiation environment and the impact of cosmic rays on satellite, and space and ground based operations.

Assessment Milestones

• Continued development of the leading GLE models using the International GLE database and publish results from analyses (annual).
• Undertake annual austral summer cosmic ray latitude surveys aboard US Coast Guard icebreakers (2000-2005).
• Publish improved neutron monitor yield functions and cosmic ray spectra as a function of solar activity following analyses of latitude surveys (2005).
• Space Ship Earth consortium automation of real time data delivery for input to space weather prediction (2003).
• Publish the possible relationships between cosmic ray anisotropies and transient events and space weather forecasting (2004-2005).

Research Output achieved against the strategic plan

21of the 33 publications under the SAS program were for space weather related research.  These were mostly from projects 606 and 29.

Provision of data for communications prediction and space weather monitoring was routine and largely automated.  Increased automation of the systems at Casey were completed in time for the departure of the last SAS staff member in October this year.

The first fine time resolution analysis of a GLE (14 July 2000 event) ever attempted was successfully undertaken and the results reported at an international conference in August (conference publication will appear in the next annual progress report).  Further finessing of this analysis will be undertaken and published in the international refereed literature in due course.

The annual latitude survey was undertaken.  A new instrument housing is under construction to replace the rusting container for the present season.  A second monitor and housing will be completed for next season so that it is no longer necessary to transfer between the two ships.

Major Research Output(s) completed in 2000-01 relating to previous seasons' activities (e.g. Broke Survey of Krill in Antarctic waters)

Significant level of automation achieved prior to SAS staff departures from Mawson and Macquarie Island at the end of 2000.  The cosmic ray lab was already largely automated but some improvements were made there as well.  These automated systems have performed very well throughout the last winter.  This relates to projects 20, 29, 527, 606 and 2286.

Research/Activities in the 2000-01 strategic plan NOT achieved and why

nil

General Comment

Deployment of the lidar, automation and changed staffing allocation will see a shift in emphasis away from the upper atmosphere research to mesospheric research.  As newly appointed program leader I will be fostering strong international links in this area and appointing staff to the AAD program to enhance the theoretical and model development aspects of the program.  The installation of the VHF radar over the next few seasons will further enhance this shift.  Over the next few years greater productivity based around a suite of equipment for mesospheric and stratospheric observations at Davis should be evident together with a change of culture from a data collection program to a data interpretation program.

Research Output for Upper Atmosphere & Space Physics  Program published in 2000

 

Program Leader Publications

Discipline - Atmospheric Sciences - Space and Atmospheric Sciences Program

Restricted to years from 2000 to 2000.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ables, S. T., Fraser, B. J., Olson, J. V. and Morris, R. J. (2000) Conjugate ULF Field Line Resonances at cusp Latitudes In: COSPAR (Ed.). Advances in Space Research 26. 125-130.  ASAC Project 606

Ables, S. T., Fraser, B. J., Ponomarenko, P. V. and Morris, R. J. (2000) Cusp Latitude Transient Pulsations: Solar Wind Correlations and Diurnal Patterns The First S-RAMP Conference, Sapporo, Japan, 2-6 October 2000.  ASAC Project 606.

Ables, S. T., Fraser, B. J., Ponomarenko, P. V., and Morris, R. J. (2000) Transient ULF Wave Signatures at the Cusp AIP 2000, 14th National Congress.  ASAC Project 606.

Cramp, J.L. (2000) The status of ground level enhancement modelling In: Duldig, M.L. (Ed.). ANARE Research Notes 102 . 163-179 ; [Ref: 9239 ] Projects 29

Cramp, J.L. (2000) Future trends in ground level enhancement modelling In: Duldig, M.L. (Ed.). ANARE Research Notes 102 . 221-226 ; [Ref: 9241 ] Projects 29

Duldig, M.L. (2000) Heliospheric modulation: Theory and underground observations In: Duldig, M.L. (Ed.). ANARE Research Notes 102 . 145-161 ; [Ref: 9238 ] Projects 29

Duldig, M.L. (2000) Future of heliospheric modulation observations In: Duldig, M.L. (Ed.). ANARE Research Notes 102 . 211-220 ; [Ref: 9240 ] Projects 29

Duldig, Marc (Ed.) (2000) 50 Years of cosmic ray research in Tasmania In: Duldig, Marc (Ed.). ANARE Research Notes 102 . 232 pp ; [Ref: 9600 ] Projects 29

Duldig, Marc L. (2000) Muon Observations In: (Ed.). Space Science Reviews 93 . 207-226 ; [Ref: 9546 ] Projects 29

Fenton, K.B. (2000) Cosmic ray observations at Macquarie Island in the 1940's and 1950's In: Duldig, M.L. (Ed.). ANARE Research Notes 102 . 31-56 ; [Ref: 9234 ] Projects 29

Fraser, B.J., C.T. Russell, J.D. Means, F.W. Menk, and C.L. Waters (2000) FedSat, an Australian research microsatellite In: (Ed.). Advances in Space Research 25 . 1325 ; [Ref: 8992 ] Projects 606

Fraser, B. J., Waters, C. L., Ables, S. T., Howard, T., Bish, A., Symonds, L., Morris, R. J. and Liu, R. Y. (2000) Pc3-5 ULF Wave Observations from a Triangular Network of Closely Spaced Magnetometers near Davis Station, Antarctica AIP 2000, 14th National Congress.  ASAC Project 606.

French, J., Burns, G., Greet, G. and French, K. (2000) Antarctic noctilucent clouds: the upper atmosphere exposed to view. In: (Ed.). The Physicist 37 . 85-90 ; [Ref: 9361 ] Projects 701

French, W.J.R., Burns, G., Finlayson, K., Greet, P.A., Lowe, R.P. and Williams, P.F.B. (2000) Hydroxyl (6-2) airglow emission intensity ratios for rotational temperature determination In: (Ed.). Annales Geophysicae 18 . 1293-1303 ; [Ref: 9194 ] Projects 701

Greet, P.A., Murphy, D.J., Vincent, R. and Dyson, P.L. (2000) A comparison of optical and radar measurements of mesospheric winds and tides In: (Ed.). Geophysical Research Letters 27 . 2477-2480 ; [Ref: 9244 ] Projects 514 , 674

Howard, T. A. and Menk, F. W. (2000) Propagation of ULF (10-50 mHz) Waves into the High Latitude Magnetosphere AIP 2000, 14th National Congress.  ASAC Project 606.

Howard, T. A. and Menk, F. W. (2000) The Generation and Propagation of Pc3-4 (10-50 mHz) Waves in the High Latitude Magnetosphere The First S-RAMP Conference, Sapporo, Japan, 2-6 October 2000.  ASAC Project 606.

Innis, J.L. (2000) Deceleration of the high-latitude thermospheric wind by polar cap gravity waves In: (Ed.). Geophysical Research Letters 27(23) . 3813-3816 ; [Ref: 9547 ] Projects 514

Jacklyn, R.M. (2000) Underground Studies in Tasmania and at Mawson In: Duldig, M.L. (Ed.). ANARE Research Notes 102 . 91-101 ; [Ref: 9237 ] Projects 29

Law, P. (2000) Cosmic rays in the Antarctic - Laying the foundations In: Duldig, M.L. (Ed.). ANARE Research Notes 102 . 27-30 ; [Ref: 9233 ] Projects 29

McCracken, K. (2000) The Australian neutron monitor network In: Duldig, M.L. (Ed.). ANARE Research Notes 102 . 81-89 ; [Ref: 9236 ] Projects 29

Menk, F. W., C. L. Waters and B. J. Fraser (2000) Field line resonances and waveguide modes at low latitudes; 1. Observations In: AGU (Ed.). Journal of Geophysical Research 105 . 7747 ; [Ref: 9303 ] Projects 606

Munakata, K., Bieber, J.W., Yasue, S., Kato, C., Koyama, M., Akahane, S., Fujimoto, K., Fujii, Z., Humble, J.E. and Duldig, M.L. (2000) Precursors of geomagnetic storms observed by the muon detector network In: (Ed.). Journal of Geophysical Research 105 (A12) . 27457-27468 ; [Ref: 9592 ] Projects 29

Murphy, D.J. and Vincent, R.A. (2000) Amplitude enhancements in Antarctic MF radar echoes In: (Ed.). Journal of Geophysical Research 105(D21) . 26683-26693 ; [Ref: 9548 ] Projects 674

Neudegg, D.A., Fraser, B.J., Menk, F.W., Waters, C L., Burns, G.B and Morris, R.J. (2000) ULF wave attenuation in the high latitude ionospheric waveguide In: (Ed.). Advances in Space Research 25 . 1559-1565 ; [Ref: 8993 ] Projects 606

Parsons, N.R. (2000) Cosmic ray observations at Mawson - The early days In: Duldig, M.L. (Ed.). ANARE Research Notes 102 . 57-60 ; [Ref: 9235 ] Projects 29

Ponomarenko, P. V., B. J. Fraser, S. T. Ables, F. W. Menk, R. J. Morris and Liu Ruiyuan (2000) On the Origin and Propagation Mechanisms of Cusp Region Pc3 Pulsations In: CRCSS (Ed.). CRCSS Conference, Lakes Resort Hotel, Adelaide; 15-17 February 2000.   ASAC Project 606.

Ponomarenko, P. V., Fraser, B. J., Menk, F. W., Ables, S. T. and Morris, R. J. (2000) Spectral Structure of Pc3 ULF Wave Energy at High Latitudes AIP 2000, 14th National Congress.   ASAC Project 606.

Ponomarenko, P. V., Fraser, B. J., Menk, F. W., Ables, S. T. and Morris, R. J. (2000) Sources of Pc3 Energy at High Latitudes The First S-RAMP Conference, Sapporo, Japan, 2-6 October 2000.  ASAC Project 606.

Waters, C.L., Harrold, B.G. Menk, F.W. Samson, J.C. and Fraser, B.J. (2000) Field line resonances and waveguide modes at low latitudes; 2. A Model In: AGU (Ed.). Journal Geophysical Research 105 . 7763-7774 ; [Ref: 8982 ] Projects 606

Wilkinson P., Patterson, G., Cole, D.G., Yuile, C., Wang, Y-J., Tripathi,Y., Marshall, R., Thompson, R. and Phelan, P. (2000) Australian Space Weather Services - Past And Present In: (Ed.). Advances in Space Science 26 . 233 ; [Ref: 9232 ] Projects 20